FAQ – Are Chances real money?

Are Chances real money?

Yes. They can be traded, exchanged, and have value.


Are Chances the same as Bitcoin?

No. Chances are a digital currency unlike Bitcoin. They feature privacy and have no transaction fees. The key features of Chances are an elastic, predictable money supply, high transactability, and an incentive to spend the money, rather than hold it.


How long does a transaction take to complete?

Transactions complete immediately.


Is the price stable?

Yes. This is because the money supply is elastic and pegged to the number of verified members. It grows automatically as verified members join and use the platform.


Can I invest in Chances like in bitcoin?

No. The currency is price stable, and designed for making transactions. There are no miners, and no incentive for holding the currency long term. You can, however, use Chances to build wealth in new businesses, services, and products, by paying for goods and labor in Chances.


Can I become a miner?

No, there are no miners.


How do I get an “air-drop”

You cannot. There are no air-drops, no early participation rewards, and no need for such things. Our foundation does not trade Chances for other currencies, and is not for profit. When you confirm your identity and are approved on the platform, you will receive an allotment of 1.000.000 c$. Every beneficiary receives one and only one allotment.


If every beneficiary receives 10.000c$ each month, why isn’t there inflation?

The 10.000c$ deposited each month is funded by a 1% draw that happens across the network. Accounts above 1.000.000c$ will see their accounts shrink slightly every month (less than 1%). Accounts less than 1.000.000c$ will see a slight increase every month, with an amount that becomes larger and larger the closer to 0c$ the account is. Accounts at 0c$ will see 10,000c$ deposited. This is because 1% is being drawn, and 10.000c$ are being put back in.


Economic traps make good people stick with bad ideas

“What would happen if we paid people to stop doing useless sh*t?”

It’s true enough to say that every modern economy requires it’s citizens to justify their existence economically. Most of us have to convince others that we are worth something, that we have some insight, and from this stems sometimes perverse incentives that leave many people trapped and even perpetuate bad ideas and bad behavior, like fraud and crime. When your livelihood relies on a situation that is corrupt, immoral, inefficient, deceptive, or otherwise a drag to society, you might find yourself with little economic incentive to make it stop. Quite the contrary, you might feel you have to figure out how to keep it going so that you can live. You might even say to yourself, “if I don’t give these people what they want (e.g., take advantage of the situation), someone else will.”

13 best ways to become economically trapped: (presented as clickbait)

  1. Start down a career path that you later come to realize is unnecessary and of no personal value. Stick with it to retirement.
  2. Give up your career to become the 24/7 caregiver of your children. Added bonus, grab yourself an abusive spouse (pun intended).
  3. Become an influencer for anti-aging creams that you later come to know are equivalent in usefulness to selling dog piss and melted snow. Keep selling it because, “people are going to buy it from someone else, anyway.”
  4. Learn to become a productivity guru and market yourself as having supernatural powers to “ten ex (10x)” any business teams’ sales.
  5. Become a day trader. Lose your money. Raise money for investment fund from family and collect a 20% yearly management fee to provide them with “expert insight.”
  6. Join a religion. Become a paid figurehead in some community of said religion. Lose faith. Tell yourself, “I’m just telling people what they need to hear.
  7. Find out your boss is stealing money. Don’t report it… you like your job. Be an accomplice to crime.
  8. Witness your friend commit gang related crime. Witness your friend’s gang tell you to “shut the f*’up or die.” Now prove your loyalty by committing crime.
  9. Go to prison. Serve your time. Never qualify for a job ever again. Go directly to 6.

Imagine you join a cult. At first it seems eye-opening, transformative even, and you feel that you’re becoming a bold and brave new person. You move your family to Podunksville where all the excitement is happening and in order to be closer to the epicenter. Your enthusiasm eventually leads you to getting paid for each new member you sign up.

All of your economic life become closely entwined with life in the cult, as you are paid for your cult marketing services through the money you help to bring in for it. The more members you sign up, the better.

But one day, you get a glimpse that something is off. The cult you used to know and love has become perverted and it’s ideals cheapened somehow. “Stay away,” you think to tell others. But if you do, what happens to your livelihood? Forgetting the social consequences, it’s economically daunting to be honest about your situation, because you will effectively be punished for discouraging new recruits and telling people to stay away.

Welcome. You are now officially trapped, so you continue to bring in new recruits. You feel that if you don’t, your existence will be in jeopardy. Maybe, you also feel that if you had been able to discourage new recruits by showing them the truth of the situation, you might have bettered the entire economy by keeping people from spending time and effort on bad ideas. Alas, no one wants to pay you to give up bad ideas. That kind of thing just doesn’t exist yet.

Why cryptocoins have not been adopted by the marketplace

Crypto coins are functionally the same as equities in that they have a constrained supply, reward early participants, are used mainly to raise capital in the form of an external currency, with the exception that in comparison to owning equity, owning coins represents no proportionate value of any underlying value in particular.

Because their money supplies are constrained, volatility relative to other currencies, in addition to transaction fees and major security and privacy flaws, make them worthless to transact with. You wouldn’t buy pizza if it takes you 5% in fees, 4 hours for the transaction to process, and your wallet value might increase or decrease 50% in that time it takes to process the transaction.

Transaction fees, transaction times, energy expenses, and locked wallets are technical challenges that can be overcome. But the money supply issue is at the heart of why cryptocoins can’t be a transactable currency. A fixed, inelastic money supply cripples the ability for ordinary, non investing participants in an economy to acquire and use it. Bitcoin neither represents any underlying wealth, nor makes it possible for people in a marketplace to transact with it.

CHANCES: Whitepaper on digital money optimized for transacting and universal adoption

Abstract: To the question, “what features would make for an ideal, highly transactable, universally adopted digital currency?” we explore major limitations with existing cryptocurrencies and propose a digital money called CHANCES.

What is the ideal currency?

The ideal currency would have stable prices, an elastic and predictable money supply, no transaction costs, and be widely obtainable by participants in any economy. We consider the relationships between wealth, assets, and money, and propose CHANCES as a better currency than traditional fiat and cryptos, and we take full advantage of an all digital currency.

CHANCES…

… pegs the money supply to the total number of verified participants.

… gives 1.000.000 (one-million) c$ to every new verified participant

… allows one and only one authentic registration (participants cannot sign up more than once)

… continuously replenishes verified accounts below 1.000.000 c$ (without inflating money supply, at up to 10.000 c$ monthly)

… slowly draws money from accounts over 1.000.000 c$ (at a rate of less than 1% per month)

… has no transaction fees, no miners, can reverse fraudulent transactions, and insure deposits.

Why?

Money is in all ways relative. It is not wealth, in and of itself, so what is it?

CHANCES supposes that in modern, western economies, which are roughly 2/3rds service based, money mainly represents economic potential, such as the ability to command someone’s attention to perform labor or a service or to create something to be consumed. CHANCES explicitly draws on this connection by supposing that 1.) the money supply represents the total economic potential of all participants in an economy, 2.) that a unit of money represents some portion of potential thereof, and 3.) since the economic value is different between each participant, the function of the marketplace is to continuously discover these relative values and adjust money flows (income and prices) proportionately. For example, a doctor might be paid more than a car mechanic, which is what the marketplace participants are free to discover.

CHANCES looks at money as economic potential, and considers that it must be replenished continuously through the economy and that high participation optimizes choice and competition in a marketplace.

We suppose that the initial allotment of 1.000.000 c$ is approximately 8.5 years of average potential economic value of any random individual. Initial allotments help produce new capital pools to be used in organized endeavors within the economy and can be used to expand money supply through lending and borrowing.

10.000 c$ is distributed to all identity-verified accounts monthly to replenish participation capability in the economy, and proves each verified participant credit worthy. This distribution is funded by simultaneously drawing 1% monthly from all account balances. This has the following effect on verified account balances:

Starting balanceMonthly change
0+ 10.000 c$
500.000+ 5.000 c$
1.000.000no change
1.500.000– 5.000 c$
2.000.000– 10.000 c$

Unverified and anonymous accounts may exist, however, they are not given an initial allotment and do not receive any monthly benefit. Additionally, they are still subject to the 1% universal draw-down and they do not affect the base money supply.

Money supply

Pegging money supply to number of verified participants (benefactors) is a novel way to to keep prices stable while encouraging the network to grow. There is no hold and wait incentive that shows up in traditional cryptocurrencies, and there is no late-adopter penalty where people who come in later pay more to enter.

The following shows the relationship between verified participants and the money supply.

AccountsBase Money Supply (in millions)Relative Value
1 verified account
1 wallet
1 c$1
1 verified account
100 wallets
1 c$1
1000 verified accounts
10.952 wallets
1.000 c$1
365.000.000 verified accounts
1bln wallets
365.000.000 c$1
8 bln verified accounts
100 bln wallets
8.000.000.000 c$1

Operating and maintaining this public, not for profit network will require overhead. We propose that internal accounts will be created and tied exclusively to a CHANCES Foundation. These accounts will be listed publicly and used to spend money on the network to cover operational costs which will also be publicly posted. Internally used accounts will be subject to the same 1% draw and replenishment rules.

Features of Chances

ChancesBitcoin
CentralizedYesNo
Reversible TransactionsYesNo
Transaction feesNoneVariable/high
Transaction speedImmediate*1 hour+
Deposit insuranceYesNo
PrivacyYesNo
AnonymityNo**No
Money supplyElasticConstrained
Price volatilityStableVolatile
TransactabilityHighLow
Low energy consumptionYesNo
Cryptographically secureYesYes
MeaningfulYesNo
Incentive to spendYesNo
* Variable
** Functionally, not anonymous.

Privacy & anonymity

Anonymity is the ability to transact without exposing identifying information to any counter-party or 3rd-party. Privacy is a degree of protection from having your transactions disclosed to a 3rd-party.

Cryptocoins, although transactionally secure, offer no anonymity above and beyond existing methods available to all forms of money, such as obfuscation through legal entities, or bank mixing schemes, and indeed, they decrease privacy as every transaction is publicly recorded. One need only know some number of wallet locations and their benefactors in order to reveal a detailed picture of participants.

Primary exposure points include:

  • Exchanging into crypto at market through an exchange.
  • Establishing “mining” setups while paying for them with non-crypto currency.
  • Behavioral analysis, by tracking the flow of transactions and their timings to deduce whom has transacted.
  • Use of third party wallets.

Truly, in any mode of exchange, some level of personal detail is exposed, and any transaction can only be undertaken if the benefits outweigh the risk of exposure. Many transactions indeed benefit from knowing the counter party to the transaction, such as when using bank cards and 3rd party payment processors to create safe and trustworthy shopping environments.

Although not anonymous, typical banking laws in OECD countries offer superior privacy to distributed ledger based crypto currencies. True anonymity for a widely adopted currency seems neither possible nor practical, and we instead take a view towards privacy in establishing the framework for Chances.

Distributed ledgers

Given that distributed ledgers do not protect privacy, we do not intend to implement them for CHANCES. We expect to use a cryptographically secure, private ledger than can be audited without disclosing user information.

Why has nobody adopted crypto for transacting?

Please see a break-out of this discussion. Why cryptocoins have not been adopted by the marketplace

Resources

https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

Peak attention and the coming attention recession

The 2020 pandemic is quite possibly the maximum amount of “out of pocket attention” that us humans could, or will ever need to, allocate to pressing distractions in every corner of our periphery. Is it possible to consume more headlines, feeds, stories, or Netflix originals than we can consume during a long lockdown?

If only a small percentage of a consuming population claws back some portion of their day-to-day attention, whether it’s replaced by some curiosity of their own, or simply the burden of re-starting a commute, we will see that the businesses which boomed during lockdown be penalized to some degree. If there could be a renaissance of attention, we would hopefully see even greater shifts in our economy. All of us spending more of our attention on creative endeavors makes competition stiffer and choice greater.

Competition and choice is terrible for equity markets.

In the future, will robots be attending to most of what’s important, for us? Are they already doing that?